A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway, the Bureau of Meteorology reports.

A negative IOD increases the likelihood of above average winter–spring rainfall for much of southern and eastern Australia.

Maximum temperatures are also more likely to be below average across southern Australia, while maximum and minimum temperatures are more likely to be above average for the northern tropics of Australia.

Most climate model outlooks indicate the central tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to cool over the coming months, with three of seven models surveyed by the Bureau indicating this cooling will be enough to reach La Niña thresholds in spring, with the remaining four models staying neutral.

This forecast cooling may also be contributing to the outlook for above median rainfall for much of Australia in the coming months.

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