The local market briefly touched a record high this week and looks to be consolidating the move.
This monthly logarithmic chart of the local index since the GFC shows a slow and steady path upwards and is yet to show any signs of froth, remaining in the lower half of the trend channel. (The Total Return Index including dividends is at the upper boundary of the channel). Perhaps renewed interest in Australian resources can continue to send the index higher.
In comparison the US based Nasdaq index is roaring up at more than twice the pace and despite calls of an over valued market it is only just above the midline.
The price of oil seems quite low given the Russia and Ukraine conflict continues. Guess those sanctions on Russian oil are not being enforced very well. Will Trump up the ante with Russia to get a deal done? Aditionally, all these new data centres coming in the AI rush will need to be powered by something.
The price of gold had the biggest daily fall since 2013 they say. This four-hourly chart of the gold price shows that it had a “mean reversion” type event which took price back to the upwards sloping trend line and again touching the 50 period moving average. Time will tell just how long price remains above the trend line.
On the other side of the coin this graphic overlay of the gold price onto the emotional state of market participants was circulating just before the recent sell-off and will give the mega bulls something to consider.
This is the local gold index chart. The fall in prices is yet to reach the 50 day average has a way to go before reaching where price was in August. The price was looking frothy and some consolidation here could ready the market for a further move up.
This chart suggests that speculators were “all in” on the gold trade and the fall lower looks to have shaken out short term traders for now. Longer term the fact that central banks around the world are increasing their holdings puts some fundamental demand under the price.
MA Financial shares are up after their latest update showing an increase in funds under management.
Dubbo based Maas Group is approaching a previous resistance zone. Can it break through this time?
The Rare Earths deal with the US made the headlines with some rare earth companies like Arafura seeing a big increase in volatility. The environmental approvals process might take longer than Mr Trump expects.
Lotto mob Jumbo has moved off the lows.
Australia has a very high debt to income ratio. This new low deposit incentive from the government to “help” people acquire a house and a very large debt load puts more cash in the hands of the willing sellers. With a small amount of wiggle room should anything go wrong this just does not make sense to some economists.
A rising unemployment rate could help the RBA decide on further rate cuts and in turn make life a little easier for those in debt, for now.
Disclaimer: The commentary on different charts is for general information purposes only and is not an invitation to trade. Trading is risky and individuals should seek Professional counsel before making any financial decisions. Many thanks to Incredible Charts.com software for most of the charts used in the column. Cheers Charlie.
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