Being ahead of the curve in future

We have heard much in recent weeks about the significance of statistically-based curves in relation to the fight against the dire consequences of an unfettered spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Most of us are aware that, in the absence of a protective vaccine, stringent isolation and social isolation are the best means of ensuring that the pandemic does not spread exponentially – that is, unchecked – through the national population and create a tsunami of death in its wake.

Health authorities and governments want everyone to follow the quarantine-type guidelines to ‘flatten the curve’ of victims with the objective of choking off the disease vectors more quickly than otherwise would be the case.

The ‘flattening of the curve’ means fewer victims and fewer deaths while allowing the spread of the virus to peter out (hopefully).

There are other curves as well in the health statistics – these relate to the impact of the virus on various groups in the community based on age, immune system capability and general health.

Another set of curves also are as a result of the virus. These relate to the economic consequences imposed by COVID-19 on the economic and social life of Australia.

The closures, wind-downs and ‘hibernations’ for business, entertainment, social and sporting life also will be statistically reduced to curves.

The scale and duration of many of these is likely to be longer than the actual virus threat to community health.

The Federal Government’s various emergency support packages for the population at large are now measured in terms of hundreds of billions of dollars.

The magnitude of such supportive action has been supported, with a few exceptions, by the majority of economists, business and union leaders, and academic observers.

However, the support measures themselves will create a new batch of curves in terms of how and when the nation will expunge the sudden and huge debt burden.

By putting the Australian economy into a form of hibernation for many months ahead has been judged to be the only real solution in trying to avoid the consequences of an unregulated shutdown and massive unemployment.

Australia has been fortunate that the critical circumstances which have been forced upon the nation has not generated counterproductive and short-sighted political wrangling and morale-losing uncertainty.

The principal political leaders, public servants, and health experts have, through genuine co-operation and thoughtful evaluation, produced measures which have provided the assurance and a way forward that the Australian people need.

The times ahead may not be easy but at least now we have a sense of unity and direction to assist us in the months ahead.

In many ways the current crisis has also revealed itself to be a wake-up call for those who will direct out future. It is fairly easy to list lessons that we have already learned.

In the health sector we have seen how preparedness for such events is essential.

This requirement ranges from health infrastructure to testing regimes, from supplies of essential personal protective equipment to staffing availability, and from expert knowledge to wise and timely advice to the general public.

For governments it will be the meshing of resources at state and federal level, the need for comprehensive general policies to be adopted nationwide, the co-ordination and agreement necessary in relation to the operation of schools, the conduct of community, sporting and entertainment events, and restraints on individual and community behaviour.

The lessons from around the globe of the successes and shortcoming of various national governments in responding to this pandemic must be noted, preserved and used to inform both actions and policy.

By doing all these things Australian governments and health administrators in the future will be equipped to help our nation stay ahead of the frightening curves which may stem from a future pandemic.