Bureau of Meteorology predicts a dry autumn for most of Australia

The Bureau of Meteorology has released its long-range forecast for autumn 2023 and it indicates coming months are likely to be drier and warmer than usual across most of Australia.

Warmer than usual daytime temperatures are very likely this autumn for much of Australia.

Narrabri’s weather outlook has a 29 per chance of above median rainfall of 111.8 mm and a 25 per cent chance of an unusually dry autumn below 61.3 mm.

Maximum autumn temperature forecast has a 83 per cent chance of above the median temperature of 26.8 degrees. There is a 35 per cent chance of exceeding a median of 27.7 degrees.

Bureau of Meteorology technical lead extended prediction Dr Andrew Watkins said drier than average conditions have emerged in some areas of Australia over summer.

“Australia’s key climate drivers are easing and expected to be neutral over the coming months. When our climate drivers are more neutral, autumn rainfall in southern Australia has generally been lower than average over recent decades,” Dr Watkins said.

La Niña is nearing its end in the Pacific Ocean, with conditions likely to be neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during autumn. The Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral and has little influence on Australia’s climate during the northern wet season, which extends through until April.

“With drier conditions emerging in some areas over summer, and dry and warm conditions likely in autumn, some areas may continue to have below average rainfall over coming months,” Dr Watkins said.

Australia’s fire agencies have identified that most of Australia has normal bushfire potential during autumn. However, areas of above normal bushfire risk include parts of NSW, Queensland and Western Australia.

There is also a continued risk of grassfires across southern Australia after abundant vegetation growth during the second-wettest spring on record in 2022 dried over summer.