Australia is forecast to harvest a larger winter grain crop this year, with Rabobank estimating total volumes to reach 62.8 million tonnes in its just-released annual 2025/26 Australian Winter Crop Forecast.
The agribusiness banking specialist’s RaboResearch division forecasts total winter grain and oilseeds production to come in approximately 3.8 million tonnes above last season, an increase of 6.4 per cent. And 6.1 per cent above the five-year average.
Report lead author, RaboResearch senior grains and oilseeds analyst Vitor Pistoia says this growth outlook is underpinned by above-average rainfall received across a number of key grain-producing regions through the season, most notably in Western Australia and northern New South Wales. Positive soil-moisture levels in northern NSW and in Queensland have again supported strong yields this year.
However, the report cautions, Australia’s crop farmers face a less optimistic outlook when it comes to prices, with global grain supply surging and placing downward price pressure on the market.
“Australian grain exports face intense competition as global production remains at high levels, especially for wheat and barley,” Mr Pistoia said. “Large harvests in Russia, the EU and the US have weighed on global markets, while carryover stocks continue to build in major exporting nations, such as Canada and here in Australia.”
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